As Long As These Bands Exist, Constant Electricity Won't
The myth goes that if you put a frog in a beaker of water and heat it up ever so gradually, with no sharp rises in temperature, because reptiles adapt to the temperature of their surroundings, the frog would adapt rather than jump out. This will continue even though the temperature rises until the frog is eventually too weak and allows itself to be boiled alive.
The essence of the boiled frog syndrome, according to Dr. Prada, is that “…when our living conditions deteriorate gradually, we adapt to these conditions instead of getting rid of them, until we are no longer strong enough to escape." Power outages have crept up on us as Nigerians and we have consistently adjusted ourselves to the situation and tolerated the condition, but will this price hike now boil us alive?
The Boiled Frog Syndrome also reminds me of Martin Niemöller (1892-1984), who was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany. At first (1920s and early 1930s), he was not initially against Nazi ideas and right-wing political movements. However, after Hitler came to power in 1933, Niemöller spoke out against the impact of the Nazi policies on the Protestant Church. He soon ended up in Nazi prisons and concentration camps from 1937 to 1945. He was the one who said, “First, they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me and there was no one left to speak for me.”
At the start of these outages in the late 1950s and through the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, our forebears said, thank God at least we can afford candles and kerosene lanterns; they adapted and did not speak up for those who could not afford even those basic energy sources. Today, Nigerians are high consumers of candles, and according to statista.com, “the candle market in Nigeria is experiencing a surge in demand due to the country's frequent power outages.” In 2024, we will spend N237.25bn (US$189.8m) in the Candles market segment, which “is projected to experience an annual growth rate of 2.33% (CAGR 2024-2028).”
The trend continued and worsened in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s and generators became a status symbol that separated the haves from the have-nots; we said nothing because somehow, we adjusted and bought kerosene, petrol, and diesel-fueled generators rather than reject what was becoming our new normal. A recent report suggests almost 47% of urban Nigerians and over 27% of rural Nigerians rely on generators for their electricity.
These dirty energy sources have left us with severe health and safety hazards. We are reminded of the greenhouse gases emitted and the permanent damage we do to the planet. The effects of climate change are no longer deniable. So far, in 2024, we have all suffered the sustained heatwave in most parts of Nigeria and the delays in the onset of the rains. These heavy and weighty matters are for another day. Still, I must draw our attention to how we have tolerated the gradual deterioration in our living standards for decades spanning the Electricity Company of Nigeria (ECN), Nigeria Electric Power Authority (NEPA), and the eventual unbundling of the utility into Gencos, a Transysco and Discos.
In 2022, diesel costs rose sharply from about N280/litre to over N890/litre, and the cost of switching from fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable sources like solar with storage in lead-acid batteries started to appear accessible. Quietly, we began to jump out of the beaker to install solar panels and inverters to escape being ‘boiled alive’. Now, in the mid-2020s, we have become sophisticated users of green energy, solar-powered inverters, and a range of energy store-and-release devices which we thank God that we can afford, and we have refused to speak up for the downtrodden, the poor and the needy. Why? Because “I beta pass my neighbor.”
Having said that, we have still retained electricity from the National Grid and our Generators as backup sources to rechange our inverters whenever the energy outage needs exceed what we can replace from our stored energy sources. We thought we jumped out of the beaker, but soon realized that we needed to move to Lithium battery storage and lots of it to enjoy the same mod cons we could with electricity from the national grid. We were forced to continue paying the high diesel costs and using expensive energy to recharge, but we are adjusting. All we have done is jump “from frying pan to fire,” adapting to the conditions without getting rid of them.
The price hike in the electricity tariff from N68/kWh to N225/kWh, effective immediately, is another sharp rise in the water temperature. Are we no longer strong enough to escape? Will we be boiled alive like the proverbial frogs?
As we can see, “I beta pass my neighbour” is not just a name for a certain size of generator favoured by small businesses, it is also a mantra that describes the mindset of the boiled frog: “So long as I can find a way to adjust and survive, even if just in the short-term, I am fine…at least I am doing better than my neighbour.” Herein lies the insidious and devastating serum that lulls the frogs into a state of coma instead of infusing them with a sharp sense of urgency. This is the time for a new ethos; it is the time for us all to say, “I am my neighbour, and my neighbour is me.”
Has anyone conducted a study on what small businesses pay to access energy in Nigeria versus their counterparts in the rest of Africa? Do we know how much outage and downtime they each must suffer compared to us in Nigeria? It is time our policy advocates took up the challenge to put facts and figures together for a campaign. It is time to get rid of this condition, for us and for our neighbours, before we totally lose all strength to act!
Twenty hours plus at N225/kWh is expensive, but it could be a solution if that means dependable electricity. According to a resident of one of the Housing Estates in Lekki, Lagos that opted to pay a higher tariff in exchange for a guaranteed 20 hours plus of power, “they've promised 20h+ since they put us on BandA and what we got was dependable excuses and blame trading for performance below par. Why should this N225/kWh announcement be different from what we have experienced? Nothing has been mentioned in the publications so far.” So, without a clear call-to-action it will be the same water, and the same frogs, only that the temperature will be increased to 225 from 68 in the same bath.
As a famous Area Father once put it, “Our mumu don do!”
Here are likely solutions we should follow:
We must agree on a set of standard operating procedures (SOPs) that Discos must follow to guarantee the uptime promised against each tariff band imposed.
We must agree on a grievance reporting mechanism to be used if and/or when the SOPs are not followed.
We are putting the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) on notice that we will expect them to act as our Ombudsman in a timely and effective manner to get us redress from these Discos (including compensation and where necessary, consequences for not living by the agreed SOPs).
We must gather our independent data and evidence about outages and breaches of the SOPs so that the impact of the high tariffs on our lives and livelihoods is reliably documented. “I am my neighbour, and my neighbour is me” means we should be willing to share information, work with each other and report to evolve this into an integrity movement to demand accountability from Discos.
The fifth and final step is to use the data and evidence collected to promote risk-based interventions in collaboration with the FCCPC and regulators in the power sector to get redress for Nigerians.
